The answer to that question depends entirely on how one defines “hottest.”
The obvious and easy answer would be to base the answer on which neighborhood enjoyed the highest number of sales in the past 12 months. Under that definition, Ford’s Colony is the clear winner, posting 79 sales (excluding lots), according to a recently run Broker Metrics report based on Williamsburg MLS data.
Another way to approach this question is which neighborhoods have the fastest market times. That is usually measured by “days on market;” which, frankly, is a benchmark I abhor. In my opinion, days on market does not reflect the true marketing period, because a listing that has been on the market for a year, expires, and is re-listed with a second broker and then sold in a week will only reflect a market time of 7 days, when really it should be reported as 365+7, or 372 days.
In order to get a true picture of sales pace, one needs to consider both the supply and demand side of the equation. Let’s compare 3 other communities which buyers also consider when looking at Ford’s Colony: Kingsmill, Governor’s Land and Holly Hills. During the same 12 month period. Kingsmill posted 60 sales, Governor’s Land posted 19 sales and Holly Hills posted 10.
But, that’s only accounting for sales. What about supply? As of the end of the first quarter, there were 148 active listings in Ford’s Colony (excluding lots), and that number was as high as 175 listings last summer. Kingsmill only has 65 available listings, with a summer of ’08 high of 75. Governor’s Land has 42 available listings, down from 51 listings in September. And, Holly Hills brings up the rear with 7 active listings, approximately half of the available inventory of two years ago.
Compare the inventory numbers to the “average sales rate” in the neighborhood on a monthly basis, and that enables us to calculate an absorption rate and a monthly supply of inventory. Essentially, these two metrics consider both the supply and demand side of the equation.
Ford’s Colony currently has 24.5 months of inventory (available listings divided by monthly sales), and Kingsmill and Governor’s Land are both running about 21 months. Holly Hills, despite the lowest number of sales in the past year, only has a 9 month supply of inventory, and is far closer to a balanced market than the competition.
So, where are the best buys? Logic has it that the communities with the highest inventory levels offer the most choice, the most competition, and arguably sellers more willing to negotiate. The counter to that, however, is that the communities that maintain a higher demand than supply will hold their value better over time. So, in terms of long term appreciation, a solid buy in Holly Hills will probably deliver comparable investment results to a “steal” in Ford’s Colony.
And, that brings me to my tried and true advice to buyers: try not to make decisions solely based on what the current market dictates. Think long term. Although you are a buyer today and the softest market beckons, you will be a seller in the future, and you want to be sure that your investment pays off in the long run. Let your family’s “wish list” determine your parameters (do you want to live in a gated community, close to a golf course and/or the water, or do you want to be in town?). Once you’ve established the emotional basis for your decision, let an experienced REALTOR help you evaluate your choices, assess the numbers and trends, and structure a competitive offer. Your choice should be the best value in its category, and if it’s not, your offer should reflect that.
Would you like to talk in greater detail about the current market in Williamsburg? Feel free to drop me a line at liz@lizmoore.com, or check out the Market Trends on our website at www.lizmoore.com.