At Liz Moore & Associates, we consider ourselves students of the local real estate market. We carefully watch market trends, such as inventory fluctuations and pricing, week to week and month over month. We measure the number of sales this month against the number of sales during the same month last year, to try to identify shifts before they happen, and to gauge market fluctuations. Knowledge is power for our clients, and accordingly, we work hard to stay abreast of changing market conditions.
One of the challenges we face is how to correctly interpret what the data is telling us. Statistics can be complex. Formulas differ when you gather data from multiple sources, which can be very confusing.
Are Prices Increasing or Decreasing?
Great question! Based on WMLS data via Broker Metrics, median prices of sold properties in the Greater Williamsburg area (residential homes only, in zip codes 23185, 23188 and 23168), actually rose just over 10% over the course of 2010. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that values are going up. What is more likely is that there was more activity in the upper price ranges than in the prior year. My educated guess is that is a direct result of the expiration of the tax credits, which incented activity in the first time homebuyer category. I also believe that activity in the market is precisely because prices in many areas have fallen to around pre-boom levels, which has enticed both investors and value conscious consumers back into the local market.
According to REIN data via Broker Metrics, median prices of sold properties on the Peninsula have dropped about 8% over the course of 2010. Converse to the situation in Williamsburg, the majority of Peninsula activity is in the lower price ranges, due largely to the significant number of short sales and foreclosures in this market.
How Many Months of Inventory Are Currently On the Market?
On the Peninsula, according to Broker Metrics, there are currently 13 months of available inventory. This can be another tricky statistic, because different data providers calculate the formula differently. For my purposes in this article, months’ supply of inventory is calculated by dividing the # of properties that went under contract in February (322) into the # of properties available for sale on the last day of the month in February (4278). Accordingly, the number can take a huge swing from month to month as sales spike in the Spring and Summer months. This particular statistic is more useful when measured against the same month last year. Right now, it is running relatively stable.
How Long Will It Take to Sell My Home?
So, does that mean I should plan on it taking over a year to sell my home? Thankfully, no! Average “days on market” in February on the Peninsula was 122, which means that of the homes that sold (and that’s an important point – this calculation does not take into account properties that are still on the market, or that expired unsold), they averaged about 4 months on the market. Over the past 12 months, that number has risen approximately 14%. Another factor to consider is that MLS only uses the last listing period to calculate this statistic, so that if a listing was on the market with another brokerage prior to the current listing, that additional time will not be included in the average.
The bottom line is that statistics can be both complex and deceiving. Ideally, your agent should drill down to the neighborhood level to give you the best picture of what’s happening with the most comparable properties possible.
Curious about a particular trend or statistic in your area? Drop me a note at liz@lizmoore.com, and I would be happy to send you a specific report at no charge or obligation.




